The Future Combat Air System (FCAS), a bold initiative led by Germany, France, and Spain—with Belgium recently joining as an observer—aims to revolutionize air warfare in mainland Europe by the 2040s. This ambitious program seeks to integrate artificial intelligence (AI) deeply into every aspect of its operations, potentially making it the first large-scale defense project with AI fully embedded.
The FCAS project envisions a suite of advanced warplanes and drones, with airworthy prototypes expected to take flight by the end of this decade. According to engineers and experts interviewed by Defense News, AI will be central to the system's development, influencing everything from design processes to real-time combat decisions and even what pilots see in their cockpits.
A key innovation of FCAS is the introduction of "loyal wingmen"—autonomous drones designed to fly alongside manned aircraft, enhancing missions by gathering more data, providing additional firepower, or overwhelming enemy defenses through sheer numbers. Thomas Grohs, Airbus’ head of future capabilities and chief engineer for FCAS, emphasized that these drones will require a significant level of automation or autonomy to operate effectively, as manual control from the cockpit would be impractical.
The challenge lies in determining the optimal balance of pilot involvement across different scenarios, which will be crucial to the program's overall success.
Always Connected
NeuralAgent, a Munich-based startup led by Onur Deniz, is tasked with ensuring seamless data flow across the system. The company is adopting an "AI agent approach," where each drone operates autonomously using locally-run AI models, rather than relying on a centralized, cloud-based system. These drones will communicate with each other through various channels, including optical, narrowband radio, and infrared, constantly maintaining dynamic and redundant data links for uninterrupted connectivity.
Deniz explained that this decentralized approach has proven highly effective in computer simulations, maintaining connectivity in challenging electronic warfare environments over 95% of the time. By contrast, centralized systems had a success rate of less than 0.5% in similar tests. NeuralAgent plans to have its software ready for integration into existing hardware by the end of 2025, initially focusing on legacy systems. The company boasts that its models are highly resource-efficient, capable of running on minimal hardware like a Raspberry Pi with less than a gigabyte of space.
Organizing the AI-Driven Future
Initially, the AI models within FCAS will be "frozen," meaning no machine learning will occur during missions. Algorithms for tasks such as sensor data processing and target selection will be pre-developed and updated off-board.
AI will play a significant role in the entire observe, orient, decide, and act (OODA) loop, a key framework in military command. It will enhance sensor data quality, aid in decision-making, and potentially influence targeting decisions. However, the extent to which AI will autonomously make such critical decisions remains a topic of ongoing discussion.
Despite limited information on the final appearance and capabilities of FCAS, the resources committed to the project are immense. Airbus alone has over 1,400 people working on this next-generation air combat platform, in partnership with Dassault Aviation in France. Integrating AI-based algorithms across countless companies and thousands of engineers presents a significant challenge, as AI models have complex dependencies on one another and the data they process.
Ethical Concerns and the Role of AI
While the integration of AI offers promising advancements, it has also raised concerns among nongovernmental organizations and experts on autonomous weapons. Issues such as the reliability of machine vision, the opacity of AI decision-making processes, and the potential for AI to apply a tactical mindset to strategic decisions are at the forefront of ethical debates.
Some analysts worry that, even if a weapon system is not initially designed to kill autonomously, it could easily be modified to do so through a simple software update—a change that might be tempting in certain conflict scenarios.
As FCAS continues to evolve, the debate over the role of AI in making life-and-death decisions in warfare is likely to intensify. However, one thing is clear: AI will be deeply intertwined with the future of air combat, shaping not only the technology itself but also the ethical frameworks that govern its use.
