Air passenger traffic will return to its 2019 level this year and even exceed it, the International Civil Aviation Organization estimated on Wednesday

The world passenger traffic will return this year to its level before the pandemic of coronavirus, before exceeding, at the end of 2023, the activity of 2019, estimated Wednesday the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO). This forecast counts on a new acceleration of air transport, after a year 2022 which saw the frequentation reaching 74% of the volume recorded in 2019, last full year before the arrival of Covid-19.

Passenger traffic had fallen by 60% in 2020 compared to the previous year. In 2021, it was still down 49% compared to 2019, according to the UN agency based in Montreal (Canada).
ICAO predicts that "demand will quickly return to pre-pandemic levels on most destinations during the first quarter" of 2023, according to a statement. The agency estimates that by the end of the year, traffic will be about 3% above 2019 figures. It sees it rising to 4% above that benchmark year in 2024.

"Three consecutive years of losses"

The organisation expects the sector to return to operating profitability (profit before tax and depreciation) in the last quarter of 2023, "after three consecutive years of losses". Many airlines have already returned to profit, mainly due to a renewed appetite for tourism and air travel. A resurgence that has not been slowed down by significant fare increases.
As regards air freight, ICAO expects a lower increase than that of passenger traffic, "due to the slowdown in global growth". In 2022, air freight traffic was equivalent to the volumes recorded in 2021.

The USAF has confirmed that the Chinese balloon was tracked by at least two U-2 Dragon Lady reconnaissance aircraft. The aircraft tracking sites and the balloon's position also confirm that a very rare and highly secretive RC-135U Combat Sent electronic reconnaissance aircraft was deployed in the balloon's path.

A Chinese balloon
On 2 February, Canada and the United States formally confirmed that a stratospheric balloon was flying over US territory (see related article). This announcement was not a surprise, as the balloon had in fact been followed for two days by the armed forces of both countries. China later formally identified the balloon as one of its own and used for meteorological purposes. The United States had already announced the identity of the balloon but disputed its use: it was a spy balloon.

U-2s out and about
Since its first flight in 1956, the U-2 Dragon Lady spy plane has been flying for the US Air Force (USAF). In addition to having been continuously modernised to the U-2S standard, this aircraft has also seen its capabilities develop: it is fully modular and can therefore cover a wide range of functions (optical and electronic reconnaissance, etc.).

In addition to its reconnaissance capabilities, it is also one of the few USAF aircraft capable of flying at very high altitudes; the USAF officially states that the U-2S can fly at an altitude of more than 70,000 feet (or more than 21,212 metres), thanks in part to its engine and long wings. The balloon in question was flying at an estimated altitude of 60,000 feet (18,300 metres), well above the maximum altitude of many aircraft. By comparison, the F-22 Raptor fighter jet could fly at an altitude of more than 50,000 feet (15,000 metres).

Splash one
On 5 February, the Chinese balloon was over the Atlantic, not far from the US coast of North Carolina. An F-22 then fired an AIM-9X Sidewinder short-range air-to-air missile, destroying the balloon. The balloon then descended rapidly before "crashing" into the sea. Air and sea traffic was halted throughout the area: in addition to ensuring safety, this measure also allowed the recovery of the balloon's components by several US Navy and Coast Guard vessels.

In addition to destroying the balloon, this event was also the first offensive firing of an F-22. For the occasion, the call sign used by the Raptor, FRANK01, was a reference to Frank Luke. This American pilot of the First World War is known in the United States for having destroyed, in only 17 days, a total of 14 German observation balloons, receiving in passing the nickname "Arizon Balloon Buster". He died in aerial combat on 29 September 1918 and was posthumously awarded the Medal of Honour, the highest American military honour.

However, the USAF did not specify what equipment the Dragon Lady carried: were they only used to track the balloon at an altitude where the balloon can fly or did they also use their flights to try to gather information about the balloon?

Strategic electronic reconnaissance
It is certain that the two U-2S were not the only aircraft involved in tracking the Chinese balloon: tankers, fighters (especially the F-22), AEW&C, etc. However, the USAF did not mention the presence of other electronic reconnaissance aircraft. However, by looking at the various sites tracking aircraft in flight, it was possible to see an RC-135U Combat Sent electronic reconnaissance aircraft (see images below).

The aircraft took off from Offutt Air Force Base (Nebraska, United States) at around 9 pm (Paris time) on 3 February. It then flew over the cities of St Louis (Missouri) and Nashville (Tennessee), both of which were overflown at the time by the Chinese balloon. After a flight of 7.5 hours, the Combat Sent landed at 8.29 a.m. (Paris time) at its base in Offutt.

At present, only two RC-135Us are in service with the US Air Force. In addition to being a rare aircraft, it is used for strategic purposes only, to provide information to the President of the United States, the Secretary of Defense, the Joint Chiefs of Staff and theatre commanders. Like most of the Offutt Base reconnaissance fleet, the RC-135U is a classified aircraft. The only technical information available is that the aircraft is in any case capable of locating, analysing and identifying radar emissions (naval, air or ground).

Aura Aero has signed a memorandum of understanding with Thales, a leader in onboard avionics systems, to jointly develop a next-generation connected avionics solution for electric and hybrid regional aircraft. Aura Aero, the project leader of the ERA (Electric Regional Aircraft), the very first European 19-seat regional aircraft with hybrid-electric propulsion, and Thales have therefore decided to work together to develop a global avionics suite specifically adapted to ERA.

This avionics suite includes a cockpit solution, a secure ground-to-board connectivity solution and a digital platform.

Thales is committed to the development of tactical and connected avionics solutions that revolutionise the flight experience by providing pilots with faster and more intuitive access to information for easier decision making.

Today, most regional aircraft are old generation fossil fuel consuming aircraft. In the face of current and future climate challenges, the powerful innovation movement launched by the aviation industry welcomes the arrival of new electric or hybrid aircraft.

Tomorrow's connected avionics is a strong contributor to reducing the environmental footprint, offering hybrid management and real-time trajectory optimisation. It will also make viable a new operating model, where regional aircraft, which can be operated by a single pilot, will perform point-to-point flights to secondary airports.

Key points

- First or second in electronics for civil satellites, mission systems and sensors for defence, air traffic management, data protection and SIM cards and smart payments, created in 2020;

- Revenues of €17bn from defence & security 54%, aerospace 28%, digital identity & security 19% and civil aerospace 7%;

- International presence, 24% in France, 29% in other European countries, 14% in Asia, 12% in North America and 9% in the Middle East;

- Business model based on 4 pillars: the strength of R&D, at 20% of sales, cross-business synergies derived from deep market knowledge, a broad base of digital assets and a global presence in 50+ countries;

- Capital locked in by 2 shareholders in concert, Dassault Aviation (24.63%) and the French State (25.68%), with Patrice Caine as Chairman and CEO of the 16-member board;

-Sound financial position with A- rated debt, significantly reduced to €894m at the end of June against €7.6bn equity.

Challenges

- Strategy to refocus on aerospace, defence & security and digital identity & security;

- Innovation strategy supported by R&D close to 20%:

- Global ecosystem comprising 1/3 of the workforce, with a portfolio of over 23,000 patents, 6 hubs, 3 digital factories and 50 academic partnerships;

- focus on 5 digital expertises: connectivity, bid data, cybersecurity and artificial intelligence, via the AI@Centech programme and the TrUE AI quantum approach;

- Low-carbon environmental strategy:

- 25% reduction in direct CO2 emissions in 2023, 50% in 2030 (vs 2018) and net zero target in 2040,

- 100% of products and services eco-designed by 2023,

- launch of green loans,

- 4 priority areas: environmental management, flight optimisation, air traffic management, training and signalling;

- Acceleration of activities, contract wins and investments in defence and security (2/3 of estimated profits) and aerospace (15%);

- Acquisitions of Excellium and S21sec (security division) and AAC (sonar);

- Visibility with a record order book boosted by the start of Rafale sales to the United Arab Emirates and, more globally, by Defence & Security needs.

Challenges

- Tensions in supply chains, especially semiconductors and inflation: resilience of supply chains, ramping up of recruitment and transfer of procurement costs to customers;

- Spin-offs from advances in avionics and biometrics as air traffic picks up, followed by R&D investments in quantum sensors, cloud security and IoT data processing;

Pace of aerospace orders below that of the group;

- After a 41% jump in order intake and 9.6% increase in revenues to the end of September 2022, 2022 objectives confirmed: revenues up by close to 5.5% and operating margin of 10.8 to 11.1%.

- Interim dividend of €0.70 paid in December and share buybacks.

The end of a duopoly?

For several decades, the American Boeing and the European Airbus have shared 99% of the world market for airliners with more than 110 seats. This market is worth more than 100 billion dollars per year. Nevertheless, this duopoly appears to be undermined in 2022 for several reasons. Firstly, for the first time, two medium-haul single-aisle aircraft, the C919 from China's Comac and the MC-21 from Russia's Irkut, are about to enter service. Added to this is the crisis of the Boeing 737 MAX. With deliveries of this aircraft halted between 2019 and 2021, the production balance has been broken. In 2021 Boeing has posted 340 deliveries, with Airbus remaining well ahead with 611.

We are launching our new website, www.icaerodesign.com, a dedicated portal for multi-sector consulting providing consultants to our existing clients and new clients in the aeronautics industry. 

The aeronautical industry is booming, thanks in large part to the hard work of aeronautical engineers and technicians. These are two interdependent professions that encompass various sub-branches. 

To find the best candidates, we implement a recruitment methodology adapted to the aeronautical sector by identifying the real needs of our clients through a thorough analysis in order to find the perfect profile of the candidate to be sought.

Our experience and solutions enable us to offer tailor-made services in the field of direct recruitment of engineers and senior managers.

With an international presence, our firm is able to intervene in all types of recruitment of executives and engineers specialising in the fields of civil and military aircraft, as well as helicopters.

We are recruiting within four sectors:

• Aero Catia V5 NX
•  Avionics
• FEA
• Electrical wiring

We are looking to place consultants for long term contracts positions in Sweden.

• Ongoing needs for EU national
• Swedish payroll rules are in place

We have needs for:

• Senior Airframe Design Engineer - Aircraft Doors
• Senior Airframe Design Engineer - Forward Fuselage & Flight Deck
• System Safety Engineer
• Loads & Dynamics Engineer
• Senior Electrical Propulsion Motor & Controller Engineer
• Electrical Propulsion System Integration Engineer
• Senior Aerodynamics & Thermodynamics Engineer
• Stability and Control Engineer
• Performance Engineer
• Senior Human factors & Ergonomic Engineers
• Environmental Control System Engineer
• Flight Test Instrumentation Design Engineer
• Prototyping Technician
• Senior Material and Process Engineers
• Senior Loads and Dynamic Engineers
• Senior Landing Gear System Engineers